Throughout the South China Sea, People's Armed Forces Maritime Militia (PAFMM) forces can be found patrolling the waters, each flying an unmistakable five-star emblem as a way of asserting Chinese sovereignty. As a fleet of armed fishing vessels, this Chinese Communist Party (CCP) force has played an instrumental role in asserting a paramilitary presence in the South China Sea. As Chinese aggression in the South China Sea continues to ramp up, the Philippines have begun to form a resistance paramilitary force in response — the Cafgu Active Auxiliary Service (CAAS), borne out of the experience of a recent Chinese blockade of Thitu Island where Philippine forces have been trying to maintain and expand a standing military force. The CAAS, composed of militia naval vessels working with the Philippine Navy, is the latest effort by the Philippines to prevent the rampant intimidation and bullying of their commerce and interests in the region by Chinese actions there. However, the CAAS is not a natural extension of recent Philippine foreign policy. In fact, they represent quite the opposite.
The CAAS is symbolic of President Rodrigo Duterte’s departure from his pro-China stance since taking office, as evidenced by his speech at the UN on September 23rd. In this speech, Duterte takes aim at China, specifically their “attempts to undermine” Philippine maritime claims upheld by the UN in Philippines v. China, which ruled against China’s Nine-Dash Line, a historical maritime claim that covers 90% of the South China Sea. Walking back on many of his friendly comments towards Xi Jingping and the CCP, Duterte’s shift in speech seems to be an indication of a policy shift in regard to territorial sovereignty. Since July 12, 2016, the UN has officially rejected China’s claims to the Nine-Dash Line, defending the competing claims made by other states in the region. However, until recently the Philippines had done little to capitalize on the 2016 arbitration. Duterte has aligned the Philippines closer to China over the last four years, seeking to even conduct joint military exercises between the Philippine military and the People’s Liberation Army. What has caused Chinese-Phillipine relations to sour?
One cause of the Philippine’s increased resistance to Chinese influence can be seen in domestic politics, where there has been significant backlash against Chinese immigration. The influx of over 4 million Chinese nationals has prompted investigations and concerns regarding national security; similarly, over 2700 Chinese nationals were ordered to leave the Philippines after overstaying tourist visas. This internal backlash against immigration coming from China mirrors the increasing foreign resistance to China’s bulldoggish approach in the South China Sea, showing an overall rise in anti-Chinese sentiment in the Philippines.
For the United States, this recent change in Duterte’s sentiment is a positive. Since the Philippines were annexed by the United States in 1898, they have been a historic ally to the United States in the Pacific theater. However, as Duterte has increasingly sided with the CCP, Phillipine-U.S. relations have slipped to the wayside. On February 11, 2020, the Filipino government notified the U.S. that the Visiting Forces Agreement, a pact between the two military forces, would be terminated. The VFA allowed U.S. forces to maintain sovereignty on Phillipine soil while conducting joint exercises with Phillipine forces. Its termination spelled the ending of a two decade long signal of commitment between the two nations. However, since then the abolition of the VFA has been suspended and will remain so for the foreseeable future. In fact, since then the Philippine military has supported the VFA, showing that Duterte’s repeal of the agreement faces internal resistance.
Following U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo’s statements at the 10th East Asia Summit, there is assuredly an American interest in opposing Chinese aggression in the region. The Phillipines finds itself in a position to cause meaningful change on the international level. Its decision between Chinese and American cooperation could spell success for either. For the Chinese, Phillipine support guarantees a stranglehold of the South China Sea. For the U.S., Phillipine support marks a crucial launching point for military resources in the region.
When we look at China’s actions in the South China Sea, it is clear that the Philippines has shown its willingness to oppose Chinese aggression. While it is unclear what direction Duterte wants to take Philippine foreign policy in the future, to many economists and foreign policy analysts there has been an incredibly worrying advance of Chinese interests. From potential Chinese debt traps in Africa to territorial expansion in the South China Sea, the Philippines and the rest of Southeast Asia should not accept Chinese control. And while the United States is by no means a perfect solution, it is a stark contrast to the brutally authoritarian nature of the CCP and its expansionist ambitions. It is all too easy to condone the hidden yet crushing tactics used by the CCP to silence and squash its opposition internally, from the Muslim Uyghurs to the Hong Kongers. When we see those same tactics used on the international scene, we shouldn’t be surprised. With a rise in Chinese militarization and the brewing of conflict between China and the United States, the Philippines found itself caught between two potentially crucial allies. It seems clear that the Philippines have made their choice and have stood against Chinese advances. Now we can only hope the U.S. will support them.