One of the many ‘pop-up’ prisons where ISIS prisoners are housed in northeastern Syria. Cramped, confined spaces provide perfect conditions for the spread of radical ideology. (Rouba El Husseini / Agence France-Presse)
The United States’ withdrawal from Syria, and the subsequent Turkish incursion into the country, have sparked concerns of the possible re-emergence of ISIS. The Turkish invasion has forced the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to turn its attention northward, leaving prisons holding thousands of ISIS militants, and tens of thousands of their family members, unguarded.
The threat posed by escaping militants is tangible. Prisons played an important role in the initial rise of ISIS, offering suspected Al Qaeda militants an “extraordinary opportunity” to network. The confined quarters allowed prisoners to interact in ways which would otherwise have been impossible. It was in Camp Bucca, a U.S. administered facility, that the recently deceased Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi formed the leadership and ideological nexus of what would become arguably the most fearsome terrorist organization in recent memory.
There is reason to believe that ISIS will capitalize on the US withdrawal from Syria to instigate prison breaks. In 2012, shortly after the US drawdown in Iraq, al-Baghdadi launched a campaign known as 'Breaking the Walls,' which saw the release of hundreds of militants, and the consolidation of forces that allowed ISIS to expand its influence in Iraq and Syria. This tactic might well be employed again; in September 2019, al-Baghdadi reportedly urged his followers to do everything in their power to free imprisoned militants from SDF-administered jails.
It is important to note that the prisons in Syria today are not like Camp Bucca - they are far worse. These 'pop-up prisons,’ as they are commonly called, are often converted government or school buildings crammed with inmates living in debilitating conditions. A press release by the Department of Defense in June 2019 went so far to say that the poor administration of these prisons has allowed for the "uncontested spread” of ISIS' ideology. We cannot know what may have festered in these makeshift prisons, but they have certainly provided ideal environments for the growth of ISIS’ radical doctrine.
Certainly, the recent prison breaks, most notably one instance where over 800 ISIS-linked detainees escaped from a prison camp in northern Syria, are cause for alarm. And it would be dangerous to assume that the death of al-Baghdadi spells the end of the ISIS threat. In the latter half of the 2010s, as ISIS began losing territory and influence in the Middle East, fighters began looking beyond the region for new areas to build their caliphate. The highly ideological nature of the group means that the weakening of ISIS in Syria, be it by loss of territory, or leadership vacuum, does not necessarily impair its influence. In fact, it may propel its growth. The battle with the next incarnation of ISIS may not occur in Syria, or even the Middle East.
One potential target could be Southeast Asia. The threat of returning fighters to the region has been well-established. The archipelagos of Indonesia and the Philippines, each containing thousands of inhabited islands, have for decades provided safe havens for terrorist groups such as Abu Sayyaf. It is a Herculean task to effectively control such a wide spread of territory, and militants can exploit porous borders to enter these countries largely undetected.
The political environment within the region likewise provides fertile ground for the growth of extremist ideology. Indonesia is the world's most populous Muslim-majority country, and in recent times its domestic politics has acquired an overtly religious dimension. Of greater concern is the spread of the notoriously hardline Wahhabi theology through Saudi investment in Indonesian educational institutions, such as the Institute for the Study of Islam and Arabic (LIPIA). LIPIA has been instrumental in the education of prominent Indonesian radicals such as Habib Rizeiq, founder of the Islamic Defenders Front, a fundamentalist organization that has been accused of inciting religious violence in the country. Aman Abdurrahman, a central figure in the formation of the ISIS-linked terrorist group Jamaah Ansharut Daulah (JAD), lectured at LIPIA in the 1990s.
The destruction of Marawi in 2017 shows the extent of the threat posed by ISIS-linked groups in Southeast Asia. (Reuters)
In many ways, the threat of radical Islam in Southeast Asia has already been realized. In 2017, hundreds of ISIS-affiliated militants captured the Philippine city of Marawi in an attempt to establish a regional caliphate. The particular ruthlessness of the terrorism in Southeast Asia is also alarming. The 2018 Surabaya suicide bombings, which killed 18 people, were carried out by whole families, including children. A year on, the threat posed by radical groups in the region is still alive and well. Within the week of Trump's announcement of the US’ withdrawal from Syria, an Indonesian Minister was stabbed by attackers associated with the JAD - the same group which orchestrated the deadly Surabaya bombings.
The family of six that carried out the 2018 suicide attacks on three churches in Surabaya. The youngest member of the family was aged 9. (The Guardian)
The threat of radical Islamic terrorism in Southeast Asia will only be compounded by the US' withdrawal. It is believed that roughly a thousand Southeast Asians have travelled to the Middle East to join ISIS, and a significant number remain in the region. Many are likely incarcerated in prison camps in northeastern Syria, where foreign fighters make up a fifth of the inmate population. The return of escaping militants, further radicalized within these makeshift prisons, could potentially spell disastrous consequences for the region. Even if they are unable to return to their home countries, there remains the possibility that they could inspire ‘lone-wolf’ attacks, which ISIS has become infamous for.
It is unclear what the long-term effects of the US withdrawal from Syria will be, but it is difficult to imagine that they will be anything but negative. Whether the US' actions ultimately do revitalize ISIS, it would be ill-advised to provide any amount of breathing space for such an organization. The world has already seen what emerged from the gates of Camp Bucca – hopefully, we will never have to find out what might have escaped from northeastern Syria.