*This article is the second part to an article published in the Journal of Politics and International Affairs on March 29, 2019. It is recommended to read Part I before proceeding.
America’s 74 year old strategic alliance with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has long been called into question due to the House of Saud’s abysmal domestic human rights and foreign affairs record, especially after the October 2018 assassination of Saudi-born journalist Jamal Khashoggi. While the country is undoubtedly rich and powerful, it is the antithesis of everything America is supposed to represent: while America is a secular liberal democracy with freedom of speech and religion, Saudi Arabia is an absolute monarchy which brutally suppresses domestic dissent, and spent close to $100 billion in the past few decades promoting it’s ultra-conservative brand of Islam known as Wahhabism through mosques, imam training, and notably the funding of extremist fighters.
A tank belonging to the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) being driven through Raqqa, Syria, the group’s capital at the time, in 2014. ISIL, as well as al-Qaeda, al-Shabaab, and other Islamist terrorist groups originated from the Wahhabist ideology widely funded by Saudi Arabia for decades.
This has led many to question why such a partnership exists and whether it is time to end it. Senator and Democratic Presidential candidate Tulsi Gabbard said in a Fox News interview in September that the Saudi-U.S. partnership in its current form “is not in our interest,” elaborating that they are “directly and indirectly supporting Al Qaeda”. However, would America distancing itself from Saudi Arabia truly be in the best interests in the Middle East? What would be the result of such a measure, and could progressive aims be achieved while maintaining the alliance?
If the U.S. decided to severely weaken its alliance with the House of Saud, it is certain that other Middle Eastern powers would take advantage of the power shift. Historically, Saudi Arabia has relied heavily on the United States for defense, such as during Operation Desert Shield, where more than 500,000 American soldiers were deployed to the country to protect it against potential Iraqi aggression. The September 14 attack on Saudi oil facilities from Yemen by either Iran or Iran-allied Houthi rebels highlights the willingness of the kingdom’s rivals to use violence to advance their interests in the region. Such attacks would be sure to continue with greater frequency if U.S. assurances of defense were weakened, and would cause severe disruption to the world energy supply as well as greater instability in the region, not to mention kill many innocent people.
If the United States were to weaken or break with its alliance with the House of Saud, another power might be more than willing to make up for America’s absence. Russia has been directly and increasingly involved in Middle Eastern affairs since 2015 with its intervention in the Syrian Civil War, and has begun building relationships with numerous countries in the region. Moscow has, among other steps, stationed troops in Egypt, established a Russian naval base in the Syrian city of Tartus, and supplied arms to Iraq, Lebanon, Egypt and Turkey. In addition, the Russian state nuclear energy company Rosatom has built nuclear reactors in five Middle Eastern countries, and Russian companies have made multi-billion dollar oil and natural gas deals. Saudi Arabia has already made deals with Moscow; most notably, Riyadh agreed to cut its oil production, increasing Russia’s already strong position in the world energy market.
(Left) A Russian air base in Syria; (Right) Russian President Vladimir Putin and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi tour the Russian missile cruiser Moskva. Russia is rapidly becoming a major power in Middle Eastern affairs
Furthermore, it is not certain whether distancing ourselves from Saudi Arabia would actually help to improve its domestic and foreign policies. The close relationship between Saudi kings and U.S. presidents has led to legitimate reform within the country. The 1962 abolishion of slavery in Saudi Arabia was, according to Brookings Institution Middle East scholar Bruce Riedel, due in part to a private conversation between President Kennedy and King Faisal bin Abdulaziz[1]. It is possible that removing this potential channel for progressive change could actually make Saudi Arabia a more backwards and insular country, considering the strong influence of fundamentalist Wahhabi clerics on the country’s government. In addition, as stated above, America weakening its alliance with Saudi Arabia would likely allow Russian influence to increase among the country’s rulers. A stronger relationship between Russia and Saudi Arabia would be an immense blow for human rights in both countries. Russia is also known for numerous human rights abuses, including the attempted assassination of Sergei Skripal and his daughter in Salisbury, UK, the persecution of protestors, journalists, and human rights activists, and severe discrimination against LGBT people, which in Chechnya culminated in 2017 in vicious anti-gay purges.
Saudi Arabia’s human rights abuses are numerous and utterly horrific, and it is understandable that many people want America to have nothing to do with the country. However, if America decided to distance itself from it, it is likely that its transgressions would not change. Numerous powerful players are currently operating in the Middle East, and have shown that they are more than willing to use their strength to influence the Kingdom, through violence as well as diplomacy. If the United States were to back out of its alliance with the House of Saud, countries such as Iran and Turkey, as well as their allies such as the Houthis or Hezbollah, would be very likely to use the opportunity to exert more power in the Middle East, likely adding more instability to a region already fraught with conflict. Moreover, should Washington weaken or break its relationship with the Saudis, President Vladimir Putin would be more than happy to bring the House of Saud into Russia’s ever growing Middle Eastern sphere of influence. A theoretical Russo-Saudi alliance would control a vast amount of the world’s energy production, including 25.6% of world crude oil production, and 20.2% of natural gas production; it would be far more difficult to promote human rights if two autocracies controlled such vast energy resources.
The Khurais Oil Processing Facility, the second largest oil field in Saudi Arabia, which is responsible for an output of 1.5 million barrels per day (Mbpd). Both the Saudis and Russia control a vast amount of oil and natural gas resources, making their potential joint influence extremely difficult to counter
The United States would do more harm than good if it chose to distance itself from Saudi Arabia. If Americans want to curb Saudi Arabia’s most brutal excesses, then the United States must remember President Kennedy, who was able to use U.S. influence to bring about the abolition of slavery in the Kingdom. The United States must put pressure on Saudi Arabia to end its war in Yemen, its torture, imprisionment and execution of political dissidents, oppression of women and LGBT people, and funding of radical Islamists abroad. However, if the opinion of Russia, a regime also known for political and civil persecution, holds more clout with the Saudis than America’s, progressive change in Saudi Arabia is as good as dead. If America wants to start fighting oppression around the world, then it will need to simultaneously attempt to reduce Russian influence. Any other measures, such as halting arms sales to Saudi Arabia or attempting to lessen the strong Saudi influence on the world oil market, will mean little if Moscow is willing and able to fill in the gaps. One important measure, for example, would be for the United States and Europe to double down on transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable sources of energy - this would leave the two energy-dominant countries with less global power, and more susceptible to progressive influence.
As John Oliver said on his HBO comedy show, America’s alliance with the House of Saud was never about shared political or moral values. But if the U.S. does not begin to exert a strong progressive influence on Riyadh, then countries with far less tolerant and peace-loving values might soon take up the opportunity.